Can’t buy me love? Analyzing the equalization – normalization dynamics in the Portuguese 2022 National Election

Analisando a dinâmica de equalização-normalização nas Eleições Nacionais Portuguesas de 2022

Abstract

The debate over whether social media networks have a normalizing or equalizing effect on political power dynamics has persisted for over two decades and remains highly relevant. This study contributes to that discussion by examining how party longevity and resource levels influenced both the strategic use of Facebook and user engagement during the 2022 Portuguese national election. Using a social media analytics approach, we analyzed all Facebook posts (n = 1,383) published by political parties with parliamentary representation in the month leading up to the election. Adopting a multidimensional perspective, the study considered both the supply side (party activity and number of followers) and the demand side (user engagement metrics). When party longevity is used as the criterion, the results suggest a trend toward equalization: newer parties cultivate larger audiences, generate higher levels of engagement, and demonstrate a strong presence on Facebook. However, when party resources are considered, a clear correlation emerges between campaign spending and online success, thus supporting the normalization hypothesis. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.