Rational voting in Portuguese local elections

A fuzzy-set analysis on how corruption, education, inequality and government efficacy affect voter turnout

Abstract

The rational voter paradox — voting despite the minimal chance of influencing results — has inspired extensive research on electoral participation. In Portugal, low voter turnout raises doubts about democratic representativeness. This study examines the rationality of voting in Portuguese local elections, considering the influence of government efficacy, inequality, corruption, and education. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis, it concludes that different combinations explain turnout variation: corruption and poor governance mobilize voters, while inequality discourages participation. Thus, Portuguese electoral behavior appears relatively consistent with the rational voter theory.

https://doi.org/10.21747/08723419/soc53a3